"How's the market Chris?" ...The most asked question I get. Just in front of "How's the family?" or "Have you been up skiing much this year?"
Good question... Here is one small sector of the market that tends to be one of the most normalized sectors for us number-nerds to grab onto in order to judge the health of the Pagosa Springs Real estate market.
Below is a snapshot of the last 10 years history of sold, residential, traditional built, single family homes. They are complied from homes on less than one acre, so essentially, the Pagosa Lakes area (aka Fairfield by the locals)
A quick glance of the last 10 years history
- The average sales price in 2015 was 36% above the average sales price of the lowest year of 2011.
- The average sales price in 2015 was still 9% below the last peak of 2007.
Factors that affect our immediate market future
- 2016 Election Year - Historically ,the election year sees a dip in real estate sales. Investors and recreation buyers are holding their breath to see what turns up after the dust settles on elections. Primary buying markets are not effected as much.
- Legalized Recreational Marijuana - No matter how you feel about this, it has increased real estate sales , as well as the overall economy in Colorado. Denver had the hottest real estate market in the country during the summer of 2015.
- Village at Wolf Creek Development - The developers of this project have continued to push through he controversy for years on end. If my understanding of the information is correct, there is really no real roadblocks at this point to prohibit this project from taking place. This could be game changer for Pagosa Springs, South Fork and Creede.
A few things in place now, that were not in 2005
I don't have hard data on the population change in the last 10 years, but a few things we have now, that we did not in 2005 are...
So, what does the next "peak" look like? When? How high? ....
I have no idea. I do think this cycle has more momentum in terms of population and tourist attention than the last one...so we will see.